2024 US Elections: Lichtman's Predictions

On November 5, the United States will hold elections to choose the 47th president. This article discusses Allan Lichtman‘s predictions and his model for forecasting the winner of the US presidential elections.

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Four Years Later: The New Prediction

Tuesday, November 5, the United States will hold elections to choose the 47th president. After the withdrawal of the incumbent president Joe Biden (Democratic Party), the candidates are: Kamala Harris (Democratic Party) and Donald Trump (Republican Party). Since a close race is expected, the campaign has been dominating polls and media debates not only in the US but worldwide in these final days.

Four years ago, I was very intrigued by the news about the infallible predictions of Professor Allan Lichtman, based on a model he developed with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, and I wrote a post about it [1], so I thought to do the same this year to see if the forecast would come true again.

Indeed, as he predicted, the 2020 election was won by Democrat Joe Biden, and it seems that since 1984, Lichtman has always correctly predicted the winner except for the 2000 election, when the candidates were George Bush and Al Gore, and the presidency went to the Republican candidate (Bush) despite the popular vote favoring the Democrat (the candidate Lichtman had predicted as the winner).

The model is very simple, based on 13 questions or “keys to the White House” which are a series of indicators used to evaluate the performance and reliability of the party in power based on political, economic, and social factors. Each question, always the same, can be answered TRUE or FALSE; if the number of TRUE answers exceeds 6, then the incumbent president (or the candidate of the party currently in power) will be re-elected; otherwise, not.

The result for this election, according to Allan Lichtman, is 8 TRUE and 5 FALSE, so the new president of the United States will be Kamala Harris.

Unfortunately, I could not find an article explaining in detail how Lichtman arrived at this result and justified the answer to each question, so I will take it at face value.

At the same time, since the 13 questions are known and the same as four years ago, I will try to answer each of them myself.

The Model and the Answers for 2024

Using online research (articles and interviews) and some AI assistance, without being influenced by Lichtman’s answers (since I don’t know them), I tried to answer the 13 questions:

Party Mandate – After the midterm elections, the party in power holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterms: FALSE – In the 2022 midterms, Democrats lost the House majority, though they kept the Senate majority.
Internal Competition – There is no serious competition within the party in power for the nomination: TRUE – When Biden withdrew, he immediately endorsed Kamala Harris as his replacement, and the Democratic Congress confirmed her nomination. There were no primaries to choose her, and no opposition to this “top-down endorsement“. Harris received support from all major Democratic leaders.
Incumbent Candidate – The designated candidate of the party in power is the incumbent president: FALSE – Joe Biden was the candidate until the end of July 2024, then withdrew due to Trump’s growing lead and controversies over his alleged inadequacy for the role, mainly due to age and health.
Third Parties – There is no significant presence of a third party or independent candidate: TRUE – Officially, three other candidates exist: Jill Stein (Green), Cornel West (Independent), Chase Oliver (Libertarian), but none have significant followings [7].
Short-term Economy – The economy is not in recession during the campaign: TRUE – “US economic growth (2.8%) was slightly below economists’ expectations (3%), but the US avoided recession risks forecast earlier this year.” [8]
Long-term Economy – Per capita economic growth during the last term was greater than or equal to the previous two terms: TRUE – “The US was the only major Western country where wages, measured in purchasing power, rose 5.2% compared to pre-pandemic levels. Only small countries with few million inhabitants outperformed this. This contrasts sharply with wage declines in Italy, the Netherlands, and Germany.” [9]
Policy Change – The administration in power has enacted significant reforms: TRUE – The Biden administration distinguished itself with reforms changing course from the previous administration, especially on climate, healthcare, and environment. Post-Covid, it implemented a major plan to boost economic recovery and help needy families. Also notable are efforts against tax evasion and social discrimination [10] [11].
Social Unrest – There was no significant social instability during the last term: TRUE – No major riots or unrest reported recently. However, serious internal issues persist: rising social inequality, civil discrimination, job insecurity, limited healthcare access, underfunded public education, illegal immigration, immigrant exploitation and marginalization, widespread gun violence, and rampant drug problems (especially Fentanyl).
Scandal – The administration in power has not suffered major scandals: TRUE/FALSE – No major scandals have hit Biden or Harris. Past controversies involved alleged conflicts of interest related to Biden’s son and mishandling of classified documents by Biden. There have been strong criticisms of the Biden/Harris administration regarding migrant detention centers and alleged media manipulation. Political controversies and lobbying influence are common in the US. Only an expert could assess how much these affected public sentiment.
Military or Diplomatic Success – The administration in power has achieved important military or foreign policy successes: FALSE – I believe US foreign policy has been disastrous, citing the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal, ongoing trade skirmishes with China that failed to prevent China’s rise, inadequate diplomacy on Ukraine and Middle East conflicts, loss of influence in Africa to China and Russia, and poor coordination with the EU on global security issues.
Military or Diplomatic Failure – The administration in power has not suffered major military or foreign policy failures: TRUE/FALSE – The errors above reflect negligence and superficiality rather than active failures. The US was neither decisive nor timely, but these issues affected other populations more than US voters. Possibly the main problem is diminished global prestige and power in favor of China.
Charisma of the Incumbent Party Candidate – The candidate of the party in power is charismatic or a national hero: FALSE – Despite Kamala Harris’s successful career, I don’t think Americans see her as a national hero yet. Her lack of a primary campaign and being essentially appointed by Biden (though endorsed by party leaders) slightly harms her image.
Charisma of the Opposition Candidate – The challenger is not charismatic or a national hero: FALSE – Donald Trump is controversial and certainly not a national hero, especially after the 2021 Capitol Hill events. However, these events show his strong influence over supporters, indicating significant charisma. Even the failed assassination attempt in July 2024 highlights how polarized opinions about Trump are among Americans [12].

RESULT: 8-6 TRUE – 5-7 FALSE —> 47th US President: Kamala Harris

This last paragraph, written in less than two hours, has no real value, I know. I am not a political or economic expert nor an enthusiast. It is mainly an attempt to see if, through analytical tools (other than usual polls), one can predict an election outcome. I will continue to look online for Professor Lichtman’s explanation to compare with mine. Stay Tuned.

Conclusions

Personally, I view this election with detachment because I believe neither candidate has the strength or capability to bring improvements or progress in foreign policy that would influence the world. I think American politics is heavily influenced by powerful lobbies regardless of whether the president is Democrat or Republican, and I am convinced that the new president’s focus will be primarily on US issues and interests. If there had been a true statesman, a charismatic visionary, things might be different, but honestly, this does not seem to be the case. Regarding domestic policy, I believe policies promoting social equity and supporting lower-income classes, reducing disparities and civil discrimination, would only benefit the US. Therefore, since such policies are expected more from Harris than Trump, a Democratic presidency might be preferable for Americans.

That said, on Wednesday, the day after the election, I don’t think I will watch any of the TV marathons on national or private channels; instead, I will watch a good movie on Netflix or read a good book.

Updates: Results of the 2024 US Elections

The algorithm failed again; after the 2020 elections, the prediction for 2024 by Allan Lichtman was overturned.

The 47th US President is Donald John Trump.

Election Results - Source: Corriere.it — Election Results – Source: Corriere.it

As shown in the image published by Corriere della Sera, the result was overwhelming; the states thought to be battlegrounds went to Trump. The map is almost entirely red; the only states Harris won are on the East and West coasts. In short, a preliminary and superficial analysis suggests Democrats only won in the wealthiest states.

I imagine more detailed analyses by experts explaining the reasons for this result will be published in the coming days. It seems regular immigrants voted for Trump, and women did not vote en masse for Harris as expected, nor did young people; in fact, “Kamala Harris lost 5 points among young voters and 3 among women compared to Biden’s results in the same election” [15].

As mentioned, it will be interesting to read expert analyses and interpretations.